Tham khảo một anh phân tích phe bull của Mỹ.
Mình đọc các bài phân tích của Mỹ họ đề cập đến những yếu tố vĩ mô cơ bản hay những yếu tố e.g. A.I. tạo bước đột phá cho TTCK!
Thật sự chẳng hiểu sao nhà nhà người người VN cứ bê nguyên cái chart TA quăng lên rồi phân tích thị trường up hay down!
Nghiện chart TA & lạm dụng chart , cực kỳ phản cảm. Nhà nhà người người xem chart TA như “ trí tuệ”, “ nghệ thuật” đầu tư CK nhưng chart thì ai cũng vẽ được và Robot càng vẽ đẹp hơn.
Vĩ mô, những yếu tố cơ bản hay đột phá anh robot hay chart không vẽ được nhé
Why 2023 Is Shaping Up To Be A Historic Bull Market
By: Kevin Matras
July 8th, 2023
In spite of the recent pullback, stocks have been surging higher this year.
In fact, it was the S&P 500’s best first half in 4 years. And the Nasdaq’s best in 40 years!
And it looks like there’s still a lot more upside to go.
As you know, all of the major indexes have officially exited their bear market and have begun a new bull market.
The small-cap Russell 2000 was the first one to exit their bear market back in August of last year. Then the Dow followed suit in late November of last year. The mid-cap S&P 400 exited their bear market in late January of this year. The Nasdaq ended their bear market and started a new bull just 2 months ago in May. And the S&P 500 joined the party just last month in early June.
One of the key signs that the latest leg up was coming was watching how the small-cap and mid-cap indexes were performing.
Even though they were one of the first indexes to exit their bear market, they had been lagging the others for much of this year.
Quite frankly, the double-digit gains in the S&P and Nasdaq were being driven largely by the 10 biggest stocks in their indexes, which includes Apple, Microsoft, and Nvidia to name a few.
But in early June, the small-cap and mid-cap indexes came back to life and showed that the breadth of the market rally was finally widening. A very bullish sign.
That was further underscored by the rally in the equal-weighted S&P 500 index (which is different than the market-weighted S&P 500 we are all used to following). In fact, the equal-weighted S&P 500 was actually lower for the year in May until they turned it around in June.
It was now clear the scope of the rally was no longer confined to just the handfuls of biggest names. And the bullish sentiment was expanding to include all styles and sizes.
Those were telltale signs the next leg up was coming. And up it went.
And traders wasted no time piling back into stocks.
YTD, the Dow is up 1.77%; the S&P 500 is up 14.6%; the equal-weighted S&P 500 index (ETF) is up 5.15%; the small-cap Russell 2000 is up 5.87%; the mid-cap S&P 400 is up 7.11%; and the Nasdaq is up 30.5%. (Tech is still one of the driving forces as referenced by the outsized gains in the tech-heavy Nasdaq. But the other indexes have begun a serious game of catch up.)
Here are some additional reasons why 2023 is shaping up to be a historic bull market.
Peak Inflation Is Behind Us
Last month’s better than expected Consumer Price Index (CPI), and Producer Price Index (PPI) confirmed that inflation is on the decline.
It’s still too high. But it’s definitely moderating with core (ex-food & energy) CPI (retail inflation) at 5.3% y/y vs. last year’s peak of 6.6%, while core PPI (wholesale inflation) came in at 2.8% y/y vs. last year’s peak of 8.2%.
And while last month’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index (the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator), ticked up from the previous month, the core y/y rate was down from last year’s peak (4.7% vs. last year’s 5.3%), just like the CPI and PPI. And the Fed’s latest forecast is for core PCE to fall to 3.9% by year’s end, and 2.6% in 2024.
With inflation on the decline, the Fed hitting pause at their latest FOMC meeting, and it looking like we could be just 1 or 2 more rate hikes away from being done, the market has been rallying in anticipation of this rate hike cycle coming to an end.
Moreover, while the Fed has said they are not expecting to cut rates this year, they are forecasting a -1% cut in rates in 2024, and another -1% cut in 2025.
And all of that is bullish for the market.